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The Effectiveness of Strategies to Contain SARS-CoV-2: Testing, Vaccinations, and NPIs

Author

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  • Janos Gabler
  • Tobias Raabe
  • Klara Röhrl
  • Hans-Martin von Gaudecker

Abstract

In order to slow the spread of the CoViD-19 pandemic, governments around the world have enacted a wide set of policies limiting the transmission of the disease. Initially, these focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions; more recently, vaccinations and large-scale rapid testing have started to play a major role. The objective of this study is to explain the quantitative effects of these policies on determining the course of the pandemic, allowing for factors like seasonality or virus strains with different transmission profiles. To do so, the study develops an agent-based simulation model, which is estimated using data for the second and the third wave of the CoViD-19 pandemic in Germany. The paper finds that during a period where vaccination rates rose from 5% to 40%, rapid testing had the largest effect on reducing infection numbers. Frequent large-scale rapid testing should remain part of strategies to contain CoViD-19; it can substitute for many non-pharmaceutical interventions that come at a much larger cost to individuals, society, and the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Janos Gabler & Tobias Raabe & Klara Röhrl & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Strategies to Contain SARS-CoV-2: Testing, Vaccinations, and NPIs," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_302, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_302
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp302
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Mellacher, 2022. "Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 801-825, July.
    2. Marc Diederichs & Reyn van Ewijk & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2022. "Schools under mandatory testing can mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(26), pages 2201724119-, June.
    3. Isphording, Ingo E. & Diederichs, Marc & van Ewijk, Reyn & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Der eindämmende Effekt von Schulen auf die Verbreitung von SARS-CoV-2," IZA Standpunkte 101, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Thomas J. Kniesner & W. Kip Viscusi, 2023. "Compensating Differentials for Occupational Health and Safety Risks: Implications of Recent Evidence," Research in Labor Economics, in: 50th Celebratory Volume, volume 50, pages 83-116, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Roland Diel & Norbert Hittel & Albert Nienhaus, 2021. "Point-of-Care COVID-19 Antigen Testing in Exposed German Healthcare Workers—A Cost Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2023. "The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 585-607, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CoViD-19; agent based simulation model; rapid testing; nonpharmaceutical interventions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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