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Gravity With Granularity

Author

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  • Holger Breinich
  • Harald Fadinger
  • Volker Nocke
  • Nicolas Schutz

Abstract

We demonstrate that the estimation of gravity equations of trade flows suffers from an omitted variable bias when firms are granular and behave oligopolistically. We show how to correct for this bias in the estimation of both firm- and industry-level gravity. Using French and Chinese export data, we find that the oligopoly bias leads to a substantial underestimation of the effects of distance on trade flows. In a calibrated version of the model, the welfare gains from a trade liberalization are found to be almost twice as large under oligopoly as under monopolistic competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Breinich & Harald Fadinger & Volker Nocke & Nicolas Schutz, 2020. "Gravity With Granularity," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_236v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, revised Mar 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_236v2
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp236
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    Cited by:

    1. Georg Schneider & Frank Stähler & Georg U. Thunecke, 2022. "The (Non-)Neutrality of Value-Added Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9663, CESifo.
    2. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "The evolution of structural gravity: The workhorse model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 578-603, October.
    4. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity at Sixty: The Workhorse Model of Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9584, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity Equation; Oligopoly; Trade Liberalization; Trade Elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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