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The Consequences of the COVID-19 Job Losses: Who Will Suffer Most and by How Much?

Author

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  • Andreas Gulyas
  • Krzysztof Pytka

Abstract

Using the universe of Austrian unemployment insurance records until May 2020, we document that the composition of UI claimants during the Covid-19 outbreak is sub- stantially di erent compared to past times. Using a machine-learning algorithm from Gulyas and Pytka (2020), we identify individual earnings losses conditional on worker and job characteristics. Covid-19-related job terminations are associated with lower losses in earnings and wages compared to the Great Recession, but similar employ- ment losses. We further derive an accurate but simple policy rule targeting individuals vulnerable to long-term wage losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Gulyas & Krzysztof Pytka, 2020. "The Consequences of the COVID-19 Job Losses: Who Will Suffer Most and by How Much?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_212, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_212
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp212
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    2. Palacios-Lopez,Amparo & Newhouse,David Locke & Pape,Utz Johann & Khamis,Melanie & Weber,Michael & Prinz,Daniel, 2021. "The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries : Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9510, The World Bank.
    3. Kabir Dasgupta & Alexander Plum, 2022. "Skills, Economic Crises and the Labour Market," Working Papers 2022-01, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 ; Job displacement; Earnings losses; Causal machine learning;
    All these keywords.

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