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A fuzzy model for sensitivity analysis in real options

Author

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  • E. Agliardi
  • M.L. Guerra
  • L. Stefanini

Abstract

This paper adopts a promising concept of uncertainty, incorporating both stochastic processes and fuzzy theory to capture the somewhat vague and imprecise ideas the manager has about the future expected cash flows, the profitability of the project, the costs of the project and many other variables involved in an investment decision. Thus, uncertainty in real option valuation can be faced introducing fuzziness in the fundamental items of the classical approach. In particular, three examples of real options are examined and the computational experiments are performed. It is shown that fuzziness can play the role of a sensitivity analysis of the real option value with respect to the key decisional variables.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Agliardi & M.L. Guerra & L. Stefanini, 2008. "A fuzzy model for sensitivity analysis in real options," Working Papers 643, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    2. Octavio A. F. Tourinho., 1979. "The Option Value of Reserves of Natural Resources," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 94, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
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