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Is Social Security Really Bad For Growth?

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  • G. Bellettini
  • C. Berti Ceroni

Abstract

This paper develops a model of endogenous growth with overlapping generations to investigate the joint determination of social security, public investment and growth in a small open economy. We argue that a pure pay-as-you-go system provides the taxpayers with the incentives to support growth-oriented policies, which increase the future productivity of labor. We find that outcomes characterized by positive levels of intergenerational redistribution, public investment and long run growth can be sustained as subgame-perfect Nash equilibria of an infinitely repeated intergenerational game, if and only if the marginal productivity of public capital is large enough. Furthermore, we show that transfers either comove with public investment and growth or display a non-monotonic relation, where they initially increase along with public investment and growth and then decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Bellettini & C. Berti Ceroni, 1995. "Is Social Security Really Bad For Growth?," Working Papers 218, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:218
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2012. "Ageing, government budgets, retirement, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-115.
    2. Gugushvili, Alexi, 2007. "Giving the ageing of the population how can countries afford pay-as-you-go social insurance pensions?," MPRA Paper 2869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francesco Lancia & Giovanni Prarolo, 2012. "A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 989-1018, July.
    4. Michele Boldrin & Ana Montes, 2005. "The Intergenerational State Education and Pensions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 651-664.
    5. Uchida, Yuki & Ono, Tetsuo, 2022. "Politics of Public Education and Pension Reform with Endogenous Fertility," MPRA Paper 112748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michele Boldrin & Ana Montes, 2009. "Assessing the efficiency of public education and pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 285-309, April.
    7. Michael Kaganovich & Volker Meier, 2012. "Social Security Systems, Human Capital, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(4), pages 573-600, August.
    8. Tetsuo Ono, 2015. "Public education and social security: a political economy approach," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, February.
    9. Cruz A. Echevarría & Amaia Iza, 2011. "Social security, education retirement and growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 198(3), pages 9-36, September.
    10. Francesco Lancia & Alessia Russo, 2010. "A Dynamic Politico-Economic Model of Intergenerational Contracts," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 050, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    11. Alessandro Crociata & Massimiliano Agovino & Donatella Furia & Giacomo Osmi & Nicola Mattoscio & Massimiliano Cerciello, 2020. "Impulse and time persistence of disaggregate welfare expenditure on growth in the EU," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 13-38, April.
    12. Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2012. "Social security reform and the support for public education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 609-634, January.
    13. Martin Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2006. "Transfers versus Public Investment: The Politics of Intergenerational Redistribution and Growth," 2006 Meeting Papers 712, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Kaganovich, Michael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 2012. "Pay-as-you-go or funded social security? A general equilibrium comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 455-467.
    15. Dirk Niepelt & Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, 2010. "Internal Migrations and Decentralization of Public Investment," 2010 Meeting Papers 737, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Bellettini, Giorgio & Berti Ceroni, Carlotta, 2007. "Income distribution, borrowing constraints and redistributive policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 625-645, April.
    17. Bellettini, Giorgio & Ceroni, Carlotta Berti, 2000. "Social security expenditure and economic growth: an empirical assessment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 249-275, September.
    18. Tetsuo Ono, 2014. "Economic Growth and the Politics of Intergenerational Redistribution," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-17, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Francesco Lancia & Alessia Russo, 2010. "A Dynamic Politico-Economic Model of Intergenerational Contracts," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 050, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    20. Alina Klonowska & Barbara Pawełek, 2022. "What we know and what we do not know about social security finance and macroeconomic stabilization? Evidence from EU countries," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 4, pages 455-483.
    21. Martín Gonzales-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2007. "Population Ageing, Government Budgets, and Productivity Growth in Politico-Economic Equilibrium," Working Papers 07.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    22. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 303-320.
    23. Iza Padilla, María Amaya & Echevarría Olave, Cruz Ángel, 2008. "Social Security, Education, Retirement and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    24. Daniel Montolio & Amedeo Piolatto & Luca Salvadori, 2022. "Financing public education when agents have retirement concerns," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1559-1580, October.
    25. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2003. "Long-run effects of unfunded social security with earnings-dependent benefits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 617-641, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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