Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011.
"The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Working Paper Series 2007-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morten L Bech & Yvan Lengwiler, 2012.
"The financial crisis and the changing dynamics of the yield curve,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 257-276,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Bech, Morten L. & Lengwiler, Yvan, 2012. "The Financial Crisis and the Changing Dynamics of the Yield Curve," Working papers 2012/06, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Ergashev, Bakhodir, 2009. "Analysis of Multifactor Affine Yield Curve Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1324-1337.
- Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
- James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007.
"Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2004. "Regime shifts in a dynamic term structure model of U.S. Treasury bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008.
"The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Bekaert, Geert & Ang, Andrew, 2004. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2007. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bill Bassin, 2007. "Book Review of Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All? (by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 8, pages 45-46, Fall.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006.
"What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zantedeschi, Daniel & Damien, Paul & Polson, Nicholas G., 2011. "Predictive Macro-Finance With Dynamic Partition Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 427-439.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
- Davies, Andrew, 2008. "Credit spread determinants: An 85 year perspective," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-197, May.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
- Siddhartha Chib & Kyu Ho Kang, 2013. "Change-Points in Affine Arbitrage-Free Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 302-334, March.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Abdymomunov, Azamat & Kang, Kyu Ho & Kim, Ki Jeong, 2016. "Can credit spreads help predict a yield curve?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-61.
- Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
- Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020.
"The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
- Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2019. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Forecasting the Yield Curve," Working Papers 2019-08, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
- Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
- Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
- Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014.
"Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
- Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2012. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," MPRA Paper 42848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
- Jiang, Yong & Liu, Cenjie & Xie, Rui, 2021. "Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "A factor-based approach of bond portfolio value-at-risk: The informational roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 243-268.
- Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011.
"Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves,"
Working Papers
2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign yield curves," Working papers 352, Banque de France.
- Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013.
"Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
- Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2010. "Default, Liquidity and Crises : An Econometric Framework," Working Papers 2010-46, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Default, liquidity and crises: an econometric framework," Working papers 340, Banque de France.
- Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010.
"Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy,"
Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011.
"How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
- Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2008. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?," Working Paper Series 874, European Central Bank.
- Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
More about this item
Keywords
Out-of-sample forecasting; term structure; credit spread; Nelson-Siegel model; Bayesian MCMC estimation;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Economic Research Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imbokkr.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.