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Recent Developments in Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

Author

Listed:
  • Shogo Nakano

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yu Sugioka

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Hiroki Yamamoto

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

The natural rate of interest (r*) is the real interest rate that is neutral to the economy and prices, and is one of the benchmarks for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. r* cannot be observed directly and must be estimated based on some assumptions. In this paper, we survey various methods that have been developed for estimating r*, summarize their characteristics, and apply them to the Japanese economy. We confirm all estimates of r* showed a downward trend in the long run. However, the estimated results of r* vary widely, depending on the method used, and current estimates can alter when new data are added to the estimation. Therefore, it is necessary to consider estimation uncertainties when conducting monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Shogo Nakano & Yu Sugioka & Hiroki Yamamoto, 2024. "Recent Developments in Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural rate of interest; Equilibrium real interest rate; Equilibrium yield curve; Term-structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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