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The Decline of Japan's Saving Rate and Demographic Effects

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  • Maiko Koga

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper investigates the phenomenon in which Japan's household saving rate showed a sharp decline even during the long stagnation period called "the lost decade." Our empirical results show that the sharp decline in the saving rate in the 1990's can be explained by the significant impact of demographic factors. Furthermore, the estimated life-cycle curve is hump-shaped and this means that the prediction of the life-cycle model is confirmed with time-series data on the Japanese saving rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Maiko Koga, 2005. "The Decline of Japan's Saving Rate and Demographic Effects," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:05-e-10
    as

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    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2005/data/wp05e10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1990. "Why is Japan's household saving rate so high? A literature survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-92, March.
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    4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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    6. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    7. McAleer, M. & McKenzie, C.R. & Pesaren, M.H., 1993. "Cointegration and Direct Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9306, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saving rate; Demographics; Life-cycle model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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