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Top-Down Scenario Analysis of Climate-Related Financial Risks: Perspective from Time Horizon and Inter-Industry Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Nobuhiro Abe

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yusuke Kawasumi

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yutaro Takano

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Tomomi Naka

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Naohisa Hirakata

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Kohei Matsumura

    (Bank of England)

  • Ko Munakata

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

The use of scenario analysis for climate-related financial risks is progressing in various jurisdictions. In this paper, we conduct a top-down scenario analysis of transition risk for Japanese banks. We analyze a short-term (5-year) scenario, while long-term scenarios of about 30 years are often used in climate-related scenario analysis. In our analysis, we examine two cases regarding the extent to which firms adjust smoothly to carbon price increases: a smooth adjustment case and a slow adjustment case. In addition, we use a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model to account for inter-industry spillovers. There are two main findings of this paper. First, we find that the degree of firms' adjustment leads to substantial differences in credit cost ratios of banks. This suggests the importance of accounting for the degree of adjustment to carbon price increases. Second, we find that the carbon price increase not only has an impact on the directly affected key sectors, but also spreads indirectly to other sectors through inter-industry linkages, resulting in an increase in the credit cost ratio. This suggests that even regional banks with relatively small exposure to key sectors need to pay close attention to the transition risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhiro Abe & Yusuke Kawasumi & Yutaro Takano & Tomomi Naka & Naohisa Hirakata & Kohei Matsumura & Ko Munakata, 2023. "Top-Down Scenario Analysis of Climate-Related Financial Risks: Perspective from Time Horizon and Inter-Industry Spillovers," Bank of Japan Research Papers 23-12-21, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojron:ron231221a
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks' stability; Macro stress test; Climate change; Transition risks; Carbon tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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