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Breaking the UIP: A Model-Equivalence Result

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  • Yossi Yakhin

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

Breaking the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition is essential to accounting for the empirical behavior of exchange rates, and is a prerequisite for theoretical analysis of sterilized foreign exchange interventions. Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) account for some of the long-standing empirical exchange rate puzzles by introducing financial intermediaries that are willing to absorb international saving imbalances for a premium, thereby deviating from the UIP. In another important contribution, Fanelli and Straub (2019) lay down the principles for foreign exchange interventions. In their model, regulatory exposure limits and participation cost in the international financial markets drive a wedge in the UIP. This paper demonstrates that, to a first order approximation, these models are equivalent to a reduced-form portfolio adjustment cost model, as in Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2003). Therefore, to the extent that one is only concerned with first-order dynamics and second moments, there is no gain from adopting the rich microstructure of either models -- a simple portfolio adjustment cost is just as good.

Suggested Citation

  • Yossi Yakhin, 2019. "Breaking the UIP: A Model-Equivalence Result," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.15, Bank of Israel, revised Mar 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2019.15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. Amisano, Gianni & Tristani, Oreste, 2010. "Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1837-1858, October.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    5. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    6. Sebastián Fanelli & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions [The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2857-2885.
    7. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Manuel S. Santos, 2006. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 93-119, January.
    9. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Resolving the missing deflation puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 15-34.
    10. Backus, David K. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1989. "On the denomination of government debt : A critique of the portfolio balance approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 359-376, May.
    11. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878.
    12. Paolo Cavallino, 2019. "Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Intervention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 127-170, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2021. "A Bird eye from covid-19 crisis on the Relevance of the cfa franc devaluation of January 1994 and the honeymoon effect: an assessment with the equilibrium real exchange rate. Cases of Cameroonian and ," MPRA Paper 107719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2022. "The effects of permanent monetary shocks on exchange rates and uncovered interest rate differentials," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Rong Li & Dongzhou Mei & Bing Tong, 2024. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Open Market Operations," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/6, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    5. Faltermeier, Julia & Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2022. "Foreign exchange intervention for commodity booms and busts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Yossi Yakhin, 2024. "Foreign Exchange Interventions in the New-Keynesian Model: Transmission, Policy, and Welfare," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2024.01, Bank of Israel.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    UIP; Financial Frictions; Open Economy Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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