IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boi/wpaper/2010.10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did the Bank of Israel Influence the Exchange Rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Avihay Sorezcky

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

In March 2008 the Bank of Israel started buying foreign currency, one of the aims of which was to affect the exchange rate. This study examines the effect on the NIS/US$ nominal exchange rate of the Bank's intervention in the foreign currency market. It does so by comparing the dynamic and static forecasts of the exchange rate, using an unrestricted VAR model estimated using the Bayesian method, with the actual exchange rate in the intervention period. Before performing the comparison the quality of the model's forecasts was examined, and it was found that the model produced good forecasts (given the actual values of the model's exogenous variables). In particular it was found that the forecasts were better than those obtained from the random walk model. This study found that the changes in the Bank of Israel's policy of intervention in the foreign currency market in March 2008, July 2008 and August 2009 resulted in shekel depreciation. The strongest estimated effect was recorded in the period after July 2008 when the scale of the purchases was increased, and the deviation of the actual exchange rate from its forecast level exceeded 10 percent. It was also found that the effect started to wane at the end of 2008, and that in the first half of 2009 the gap between the actual exchange rate and its expected level in the absence of Bank of Israel intervention narrowed, until it widened again when the Bank changed its intervention policy from one of fixed daily purchases to ad hoc purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Avihay Sorezcky, 2010. "Did the Bank of Israel Influence the Exchange Rate?," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2010.10, Bank of Israel.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2010.10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://boiwebrepec.azurefd.net/RePEc/boi/wpaper/WP_2010.10.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Broto, Carmen, 2013. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 224-240.
    2. Kotaro Ishi & Mr. Kenji Fujita & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2011. "Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far," IMF Working Papers 2011/145, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Zvi Eckstein & Amit Friedman, 2011. "The equilibrium real exchange rate for Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 201-213, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Rasmus Fatum & Pavel Vacek, 2013. "Do Sales of Foreign Exchange Reserves Lead to Currency Appreciation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 867-890, August.
    5. Cukierman, Alex & Melnick, Rafi, 2015. "The Conquest of Israeli Inflation and Current Policy Dilemmas," CEPR Discussion Papers 10955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:867-890 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2010.10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yossi Yakhin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boigvil.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.