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Business investment, cost of capital and uncertainty in the United Kingdom — evidence from firm-level analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Melolinna, Marko

    (Bank of England)

  • Tatomir, Srdan

    (Bank of England)

  • Miller, Helen

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

We use new firm-level estimates of the cost of capital and uncertainty to study the drivers of UK business investment in a neoclassical investment model. We construct firm-specific measures of the cost of capital and uncertainty and use new UK survey data to estimate firm-specific investment hurdle rates. There is substantial variation in the cost of capital and uncertainty faced by firms and we find both matter for investment. Firm heterogeneity might help explain the difference in firms’ investment paths shortly after the Great Recession. This suggests that, while common shocks, that is, aggregate uncertainty matters, it is also important to capture firm-specific uncertainty to better explain investment dynamics. Overall, between 2000 and 2015 investment responded relatively sluggishly to the cost of capital and more sharply to uncertainty, especially after the financial crisis. There are implications for monetary and macroeconomic policy. The relative importance of measures that alleviate uncertainty compared to changes in monetary policy rates could be larger than generally recognised.

Suggested Citation

  • Melolinna, Marko & Tatomir, Srdan & Miller, Helen, 2018. "Business investment, cost of capital and uncertainty in the United Kingdom — evidence from firm-level analysis," Bank of England working papers 717, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0717
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2018/business-investment-cost-of-capital-and-uncertainty-in-the-uk-evidence-from-firm-level-analysis.pdf?la=en&hash=607C4B7AAEE9007319F7C76BD719E14467294FBA
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Geopolitical Risk and R&D investment," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-11, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    2. Bailey, Andrew & Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Garofalo, Marco & Harrison, Richard & McLaren, Nick & Sajedi, Rana & Piton, Sophie, 2023. "Structural change, global R* and the missing-investment puzzle," Bank of England working papers 997, Bank of England.
    3. Lucyna Gornicka, 2018. "Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK," IMF Working Papers 2018/247, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Catherine L. Mann, 2024. "UK Business Investment: Economists, Managers, Financiers An Integrated Framework to Analyse the Past and Underpin Prospects," Insight Papers 036, The Productivity Institute.
    5. Juan Carluccio & Clément Mazet-Sonilhac & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, 2019. "Investment and the WACC: new micro evidence for France," Working papers 710, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; micro data; panel regression; hurdle rates; cost of capital; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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