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The October 2016 sterling flash episode: when liquidity disappeared from one of the world’s most liquid markets

Author

Listed:
  • Noss, Joseph

    (Bank of England)

  • Pedace, Lucas

    (Bank of England)

  • Tobek, Ondrej

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Linton, Oliver

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Crowley-Reidy, Liam

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution of liquidity during the flash episode in sterling during the early hours of 7 October 2016. It examines a number of estimates both of the cost of trading, and the price impact of executed transactions. These include a variant of the ‘volatility over volume’ measure of liquidity based on transaction data, which provides a better proxy of illiquidity — as given by measures based on high-frequency limit order book data — than other summary measures of price impact. The paper also shows that the fall in the value of sterling during the initial part of the flash episode was consistent with the estimated impact on prices of a large number of individually small — but in aggregate large — volume of orders to sell sterling during a normally quiet period of the trading day. However, the subsequent change in price was larger than that consistent with the estimated impact on prices of observed orders to sell sterling. This might support the suggestion, which was included in the report on the episode provided by the Bank for International Settlements, that the move in sterling may have been amplified by the pause in trading on the CME futures exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Noss, Joseph & Pedace, Lucas & Tobek, Ondrej & Linton, Oliver & Crowley-Reidy, Liam, 2017. "The October 2016 sterling flash episode: when liquidity disappeared from one of the world’s most liquid markets," Bank of England working papers 687, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Linton & Soheil Mahmoodzadeh, 2018. "Implications of High-Frequency Trading for Security Markets," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 237-259, August.
    2. Wenqian Huang & Peter O'Neill & Angelo Ranaldo & Shihao Yu, 2023. "HFTs and Dealer Banks: Liquidity and Price Discovery in FX Trading," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-48, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. David‐Jan Jansen, 2021. "The International Spillovers of the 2010 U.S. Flash Crash," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1573-1586, September.
    4. Antoine Bouveret & Martin Haferkorn & Gaetano Marseglia & Onofrio Panzarino, 2022. "Flash crashes on sovereign bond markets – EU evidence," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 20, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flash crash; foreign exchange market; liquidity; price impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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