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An estimated DSGE model of energy, costs and inflation in the United Kingdom

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  • Millard, Stephen

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

In this paper, I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the United Kingdom. The basic building blocks of the model are standard in the literature. The main complication is that there are three consumption goods: non-energy output, petrol and utilities; given relative prices and their overall wealth, consumers choose how much of each of these goods to consume in order to maximise their utility. Each of the consumption goods is produced according to a sector-specific production function and sticky prices in each sector imply sector-specific New Keynesian Phillips Curves. I show how this model, once estimated, could form a useful additional input within a policymaker’s ‘suite of models’ by considering its implications for the responses of various macroeconomic variables to different economic shocks and by decomposing recent movements of energy and non-energy output and inflation into the proportions caused by each of the shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Millard, Stephen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model of energy, costs and inflation in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 432, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Zubarev, Andrey V. (Зубарев, Андрей) & Polbin, Andrey V. (Ролбин, Андрей), 2016. "Estimation of Macroeconomic Effects from the Decline in Oil Export Duty [Оценка Макроэкономических Эффектов От Снижения Экспортной Пошлины На Нефть]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 8-35, December.
    4. Huw Dixon & Jeremy Franklin & Stephen Millard, 2023. "Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 805-829, August.
    5. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Micheli, Silvia & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2018. "Renewable energy sources policies in a Bayesian DSGE model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 60-68.
    6. Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2021. "Power generation and structural change: Quantifying economic effects of the coal phase-out in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Emanuele Ciola & Enrico Turco & Andrea Gurgone & Davide Bazzana & Sergio Vergalli & Francesco Menoncin, 2022. "Charging the macroeconomy with an energy sector: an agent-based model," Working Papers 2022.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Aminu, Nasir & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2018. "The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 14-34.
    9. Garcia-Lazaro, Aida & Mistak, Jakub & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2021. "Supply chain networks, trade and the Brexit deal: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Ciola, Emanuele & Turco, Enrico & Gurgone, Andrea & Bazzana, Davide & Vergalli, Sergio & Menoncin, Francesco, 2023. "Enter the MATRIX model:a Multi-Agent model for Transition Risks with application to energy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    12. Amedeo Argentiero, Tarek Atalla, Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli, and Paolo Polinori, 2017. "Comparing Renewable Energy Policies in EU-15, U.S. and China: A Bayesian DSGE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    13. Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей), 2017. "Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Reducing the Export Duty on Oil on the Russian Economy within the Framework of the General Equilibrium Model [Сценарный Анализ Влияния На Российскую Экономику Сни," Working Papers 051734, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    14. Amin, Sakib & Jamasb, Tooraj & Llorca, Manuel & Marsiliani, Laura & Renström, Thomas I. & Sarkar, Agnirup, 2021. "Captive power, market access and macroeconomic performance: Reforming the Bangladesh electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Bhattarai, Keshab & Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid, 2017. "Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 321-338.
    16. Wang, Liping, 2022. "Research on the impact of energy price fluctuations on regional economic development based on panel data model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price changes and the United Kingdom real gross domestic product growth rate: An out-of-sample investigation," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    18. Harrison, Richard & Thomas, Ryland & de Weymarn, Iain, 2011. "The impact of permanent energy price shocks on the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 433, Bank of England.
    19. Millard, Stephen, 2015. "The Great Recession and the UK labour market," Bank of England working papers 566, Bank of England.
    20. Samya Beidas-Strom & Marco Lorusso, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK," IMF Working Papers 2019/214, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Nasir Aminu, 2018. "Evaluation of a DSGE Model of Energy in the United Kingdom Using Stationary Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 1033-1068, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Energy prices and inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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