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How non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in non-linear DSGE models

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  • Andreasen, Martin

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper studies how non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in DSGE models approximated to second and third order. Based on an extension of the work by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe to third order, we derive propositions for how rare disasters, stochastic volatility, and GARCH affect any risk premia in a wide class of DSGE models. To quantify these effects, we then set up a standard New Keynesian DSGE model where total factor productivity includes rare disasters, stochastic volatility, and GARCH. We find that rare disasters increase the mean level of the ten-year nominal term premium, whereas a key effect of stochastic volatility and GARCH is an increase in the variability of this premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "How non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in non-linear DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 417, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0417
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Paoli, Bianca & Scott, Alasdair & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2056-2073, October.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    3. OndŘej KamenÍk, 2005. "Solving SDGE Models: A New Algorithm for the Sylvester Equation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 167-187, February.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    5. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008. "The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
    6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
    8. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    9. Gary S. Anderson & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Higher-order perturbation solutions to dynamic, discrete-time rational expectations models," Working Paper Series 2006-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2013. "Second-order approximation of dynamic models with time-varying risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1231-1247.
    2. Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
    3. Hatcher, Michael, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 440, Bank of England.
    4. Hakon Tretvoll, 2012. "Real exchange rate variability in a two country business cycle model," 2012 Meeting Papers 911, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences; GARCH; rare disasters; risk premia; stochastic volatility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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