IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bku/doctra/2020004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal policy and inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Mello

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • Jorge Ponce

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

We find empirical evidence of a positive correlation between the budget deficit to GDP and inflation expectations of price setters in Uruguay. It implies an interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies: monetary policy faces more challenges to maintain inflation expectation anchored when the fiscal outcome worsen. The result is robust to considering other fiscal variables and to controlling for macroeconomic covariates. During the period under analysis, however, monetary policy has been effective to compensate the distortions introduced by fiscal policy on inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Mello & Jorge Ponce, 2020. "Fiscal policy and inflation expectations," Documentos de trabajo 2020004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2020004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/4.2020.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Fernando Borraz & Laura Zacheo, 2018. "Inattention, Disagreement and Internal (In)Consistency of Inflation Forecasts," Documentos de trabajo 2018007, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    5. Fernando Borraz & Miguel Mello, 2020. "Communication, Information and Inflation Expectations," Documentos de trabajo 2020005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    6. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gerardo Licandro & Miguel Mello, 2014. "Firm Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2014006, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    9. Gerardo Licandro & Leonardo Vicente, 2006. "Incentivos fiscales e inconsistencia temporal: Uruguay 1970-2005," Documentos de trabajo 2006001, Banco Central del Uruguay, revised 13 Sep 2006.
    10. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    11. Carlos De Resende, 2007. "Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence," Staff Working Papers 07-36, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carotta, Gianni & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "Monetary policy communication and inflation expectations: New evidence about tone and readability," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    2. Diego Labat & Gerardo Licandro, 2021. "Towards a quality currency," Documentos de trabajo 2021005, Banco Central del Uruguay.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Borraz & Miguel Mello, 2020. "Communication, Information and Inflation Expectations," Documentos de trabajo 2020005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    2. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    3. Carotta, Gianni & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "Monetary policy communication and inflation expectations: New evidence about tone and readability," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    4. Lena Dräger, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," CESifo Working Paper Series 10713, CESifo.
    5. Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 53-69.
    6. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Central bank communication that works: Lessons from lab experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 760-780.
    7. Knotek, Edward S & Mitchell, James & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Shiroff, Taylor, 2024. "The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13758, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    9. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    10. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Jingjing Chen & Sultan Salem, 2024. "How official TV news affect public inflation expectations? Evidence from the Chinese national broadcaster China Central Television," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 819-831, January.
    11. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    12. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2021. "How Do People Interpret Macroeconomic Shocks? Evidence from U.S. Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 813-843, June.
    13. Isabel Gameiro & Rita Duarte & Ildeberta Abreu, 2024. "Reaching out to the general public: a challenging journey for central banks," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    15. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    16. Medina, J.P. & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2024. "Heterogeneous inflation expectations: A call for customized monetary policy communication?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    17. Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia, 2021. "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 507-520.
    18. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    19. Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: causal evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1218, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Picault, Matthieu & Pinter, Julien & Renault, Thomas, 2022. "Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; budget deficit; fiscal policy; monetary policy; Uruguay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2020004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca Especializada (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bcugvuy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.