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Impact of migration flows on the economic activity and labor market of Russia as a whole and regionally

Author

Listed:
  • Mariia Kudaeva

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Ivan Redozubov

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

This study presents an empirical assessment of the migration effects on macroeconomic indicators in Russia as a whole and separately for groups of regions that "attract" and "give" migrants. Using a structural vector autoregression model with the short-term constraints, it was found that a sharp increase in the flow of migrants to the country and to the "attracting" regions has a significant positive effect on the economic activity. At the same time, the outflow of migrants from the "giving" regions leads to a slight increase in wages. The impact of migration for unemployment has not been identified. Thus, we have determined that migration flows of population are reflected in the indicators of economic activity and labor market of the country. In accordance with the transmission mechanism, changes in the output and wage are seen in the dynamics of inflation. The got results will help to understand the impact of migration and whether it should be taken into account in the monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariia Kudaeva & Ivan Redozubov, 2021. "Impact of migration flows on the economic activity and labor market of Russia as a whole and regionally," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps86, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps86
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; economic activity; labor market; structural vector autoregression models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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