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Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations

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  • Svetlana Popova

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Recently, economic granularity has been the focus of researchers' attention. Latest empirical works evaluate the granularity of various economies in terms of whether shocks to individual companies can affect volatility of macroeconomic variables. Studies of developed countries show that a large part of aggregate fluctuations arises from idiosyncratic shocks to companies because of their size or close linkages between them. Using the microdata of Russian firms on sales over the period from 1999 to 2017, we test the hypothesis that the Russian economy is granular. Here we found that idiosyncratic shocks contribute significantly to total sales volatility. It was also revealed that the effect of linkages is more important in aggregate volatility estimation, but not for the top-100 largest firms. These findings are important for understanding business cycle drivers and for estimation the impact of macroeconomic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Popova, 2019. "Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps46, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2023. "The granular nature of emerging market economies: The case of Kazakhstan," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 429-464, April.
    2. Stelios Giannoulakis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2023. "Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1549-1562, April.
    3. Evguenia Bessonova & Anna Tsvetkova, 2022. "Do Productivity Laggards Ever Catch Up With Leaders?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 71-107, April.
    4. Jozef Konings & Galiya Sagyndykova & Venkat Subramanian & Astrid Volckaert, 2021. "The granular economy of Kazakhstan," Working Papers 2021/01, Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm-level dynamics; granular residuals; idiosyncratic shocks; aggregate fluctuations; industrial production.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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