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The granular origins of inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Alvarez-Blaser
  • Raphael Auer
  • Sarah M Lein
  • Andrei A Levchenko

Abstract

This paper uses barcode-level price data for 16 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 2005–2022 to investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component due to macroeconomic shocks and the granular residuals capturing the impact of individual firms and product categories, respectively. In advanced economies, the firm granular residual accounts for 41% of the variance of overall inflation, while the product category granular residual accounts for another 15%. Most of the variation in the firm granular residual is due to idiosyncratic shocks rather than to higher sensitivity of larger firms to common shocks. In the cross-section of countries, granular residuals are less important in economies with less concentrated market shares and higher inflation, such as emerging markets. Lastly, granular residuals contributed to the post-COVID inflation surge, with the firm-level component accounting for roughly one-third of the 2021-2022 inflation in advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Alvarez-Blaser & Raphael Auer & Sarah M Lein & Andrei A Levchenko, 2025. "The granular origins of inflation," BIS Working Papers 1240, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1240
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; price setting; firm-level shocks; granular fluctuations; large firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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