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Hard or soft landing?

Author

Listed:
  • Frederic Boissay
  • Fiorella De Fiore
  • Enisse Kharroubi

Abstract

Inflation is now at its highest level in several decades and threatens to become entrenched. Whether inflation is demand- or supply-driven, central banks have little choice but to tighten policy to lower aggregate demand and bring inflation back to target. Evidence from past tightening cycles suggests that strong growth and high job vacancies, as well as front-loaded rate hikes, can help prevent a hard landing. But rapidly increasing inflation, low term spreads and elevated debt levels raise the risk of a recession, particularly in the face of persistent negative supply shocks. Central banks need to steer a narrow course between tightening too much or too quickly, which could precipitate a hard landing, and tightening too little or too late, which could lead to inflationary pressures becoming ingrained, necessitating more costly measures down the road.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic Boissay & Fiorella De Fiore & Enisse Kharroubi, 2022. "Hard or soft landing?," BIS Bulletins 59, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:59
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