IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bir/birmec/10-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Safety-First and Portfolio Selection: An Econometric Study for Pakistan's Banking Sector

Author

Listed:
  • J L Ford
  • Zahid Muhammad

Abstract

A.D. Roy's original formulation of the Safety-First Principle is used to derive models of the portfolio composition of the banking sector in Pakistan. To estimate the models we use data for 1964-2005 and for 2005-2008 for forecasting. Various models are estimated, wherein loads are segrated into their various classes, with and without restrictions implied by the theory, such as symmetry on asset characteristics and the equivalent of Engel conditions. The best specification of the system of asset demand equations is a dynamic version which allows for adjustment costs or adjustment constraints in the alignment of the portfolio. It is also demonstrated that a model that diaggregates the various types of bank loans dominates one wherein they are treated as perfect substitutes. The superior model provides information on the complements and the substitutes amongst the assets that conforms to economic intuition. That model also fits the data well.

Suggested Citation

  • J L Ford & Zahid Muhammad, 2010. "Safety-First and Portfolio Selection: An Econometric Study for Pakistan's Banking Sector," Discussion Papers 10-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.cal.bham.ac.uk/pdf/10-18.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iimi, Atsushi, 2004. "Banking sector reforms in Pakistan: economies of scale and scope, and cost complementarities," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 507-528, June.
    2. Lester G. Telser, 1955. "Safety First and Hedging," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toker Doganoglu & Christoph Hartz & Stefan Mittnik, 2007. "Portfolio optimization when risk factors are conditionally varying and heavy tailed," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 333-354, May.
    2. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2014. "Bank regulation and international financial stability: A case against the 2006 Basel framework for controlling tail risk in trading books," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-130.
    3. Maarten van Oordt, 2017. "Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk," Staff Working Papers 17-59, Bank of Canada.
    4. Kalbe Abbas & Manzoor Hussain Malik, 2008. "Impact of Financial Liberalisation and Deregulation on Banking Sector in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 287-313.
    5. Ortobelli, Sergio & Rachev, Svetlozar & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2000. "The Problem of Optimal Asset Allocation with Stable Distributed Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3zd6q86c, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Turner, Steven C., 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Optimal Cross-Hedging of Cottonseed Products Using Soybean Complex Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Kuo-Hwa Chang & Michael Nayat Young, 2019. "Portfolios Optimizations of Behavioral Stocks with Perception Probability Weightings," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 817-845, November.
    8. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Trade, Financial and Growth Nexus in Pakistan," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 6, pages 1-24, December.
    9. Lawrence, John D. & Kaylen, Michael S., 1990. "Risk Management For Livestock Producers: Hedging And Contract Production," Staff Papers 13496, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    10. McSweeny, William T. & Shortle, James S., 1989. "Reducing Nutrient Application Rates For Water Quality Protection In Intensive Livestock Areas: Policy Implications Of Alternative Producer Behavior," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11, April.
    11. Sun, Shuxiao & Hua, Shengya & Liu, Zhongyi, 2024. "Navigating default risk in supply chain finance: Guidelines based on trade credit and equity vendor financing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    12. Najia Saqib, 2015. "Review of Literature on Finance-Growth Nexus," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11.
    13. Andersen, Per & Vetter, Henrik, 2015. "Pricing as a risky choice: Uncertainty and survival in a monopoly market," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-22.
    14. Costa, Ecio de Farias & Turner, Steven C., 2001. "Price Risk Management For Peanut Meal," Faculty Series 16656, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    15. Muhammad Wajid Raza & Hassan Muhsin, 2013. "Financial Liberalization and Macroeconomic Performance: Empirical Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 16-27.
    16. Blank, Steven C., 2001. "Globalization, Cropping Choices, and Profitability in American Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 315-326, August.
    17. Diepold, Dennis, 2011. "Zum Einfluss kurzfristiger Fremdfinanzierungsmöglichkeiten auf die Portfoliooptimierung mit illiquiden Assets," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 65(4), pages 380-401.
    18. Fadzlan Sufian & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2009. "Financial Crisis, IMF, and Bank Efficiency: Empirical Evidence From The Asean-4 Banking Sectors," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 12(2), pages 123-150, October.
    19. Sergiy Gerasymchuk, 2007. "Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Reference Dependent Preferences," Working Papers 150, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    20. Nicolas Brisset, 2018. "Models as speech acts: the telling case of financial models," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 21-41, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Safety-First Principle; asset demand equations; symmetry; homogeneity; adding-up constraints; dynamic adjustment; disaggregation versus aggregation of loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oleksandr Talavera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/debhauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.