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Statistical Modelization of Overindebtedness

Author

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  • Amandine Tran

Abstract

The procedure for overindebtedness was born in the late 1980s, in a context of strong expansion of consumer credit. In 2010, better supervision of business practices by the public authorities helped to limit the scale of consumer credit. Overindebtedness now concerns financially fragile populations with low levels of debt. The main goal of this paper is to set up an explanatory model of overindebtedness. A first model highlights the significant impact of the standard of living on being overindebted. However, disparities remain between family structures. The main limitation of this first model is the fact that it relies essentially on aggregated data. Therefore, a second model, which is focused on the population of overindebted households only and uses a rich database, allows accounting for different factors playing a role in the orientation towards personal recovery, which is the orientation that is offered to the most financially vulnerable overindebted households.

Suggested Citation

  • Amandine Tran, 2021. "Statistical Modelization of Overindebtedness," Working papers 807, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:807
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overindebtedness; standard of living; family structure; logit; Enquête des Revenus Fiscaux et Sociaux; personal recovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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