IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/545.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cross-border interbank contagion in the European banking sector

Author

Listed:
  • S. Gabrieli
  • D. Salakhova
  • G. Vuillemey

Abstract

This paper studies the scope for cross-border contagion in the European banking sector using true bilateral exposure data. Using a model of sequential solvency and liquidity cascades in networks, we analyze geographical patterns of loss propagation from 2008 to 2012. We study the distribution of contagion outcomes after a common shock and an exogenous bank default over simulated networks of actual long- and short-term claims. We exploit a novel and unique dataset of money market transactions estimated from TARGET2 payments data. Our results show the critical impact of the underlying network structure on the propagation of losses. An econometric analysis of the determinants of contagion shows that the position of a bank in the network and its exposure to the riskiest counterparties are significantly correlated with default outcomes, behind its own financial ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Gabrieli & D. Salakhova & G. Vuillemey, 2015. "Cross-border interbank contagion in the European banking sector," Working papers 545, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_545_2015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edson Bastos Santos & Rama Cont, 2010. "The Brazilian Interbank Network Structure and Systemic Risk," Working Papers Series 219, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Falk Bräuning & Falko Fecht, 2017. "Relationship Lending in the Interbank Market and the Price of Liquidity," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 33-75.
    3. Arinaminpathy, Nimalan & Kapadia, Sujit & May, Robert, 2012. "Size and complexity in model financial systems," Bank of England working papers 465, Bank of England.
    4. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    5. Luca Arciero & Ronald Heijmans & Richard Heuver & Marco Massarenti & Cristina Picillo & Francesco Vacirca, 2016. "How to Measure the Unsecured Money Market: The Eurosystem’s Implementation and Validation Using TARGET2 Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 247-280, March.
    6. Jose M. Berrospide, 2013. "Bank liquidity hoarding and the financial crisis: an empirical evaluation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    8. Grzegorz Hałaj & Christoffer Kok, 2013. "Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 157-186, June.
    9. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross‐Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 209-240, June.
    10. Bech, Morten L. & Chapman, James T.E. & Garratt, Rodney J., 2010. "Which bank is the "central" bank?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 352-363, April.
    11. Viral V. Acharya & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Precautionary Hoarding of Liquidity and Interbank Markets: Evidence from the Subprime Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 107-160.
    12. Simon Wells, 2004. "Financial interlinkages in the United Kingdom's interbank market and the risk of contagion," Bank of England working papers 230, Bank of England.
    13. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    14. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
    15. Gabrieli, Silvia & Georg, Co-Pierre, 2014. "A network view on interbank market freezes," Discussion Papers 44/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Fourel, V. & Héam, J-C. & Salakhova, D. & Tavolaro, S., 2013. "Domino Effects when Banks Hoard Liquidity: The French network," Working papers 432, Banque de France.
    17. Luca Arciero & Ronald Heijmans & Richard Heuver & Marco Massarenti & Cristina Picillo & Francesco Vacirca, 2016. "How to Measure the Unsecured Money Market: The Eurosystem’s Implementation and Validation Using TARGET2 Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 247-280, March.
    18. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. "Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    19. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    20. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    21. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    22. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross‐Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 209-240, June.
    23. Maria Abascal & Tatiana Alonso & Sergio Mayordomo, 2013. "Fragmentation in European Financial Markets: Measures, Determinants, and Policy Solutions," Working Papers 1322, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    24. Gabrieli, S., 2012. "Too-connected versus too-big-to-fail: banks’ network centrality and overnight interest rates," Working papers 398, Banque de France.
    25. Sonali Das & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2012. "How Risky Are Banks' Risk Weighted Assets? Evidence From the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2012/036, International Monetary Fund.
    26. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heuver, Richard, 2020. "Applications of liquidity risk discovery using financial market infrastructures transaction archives," Other publications TiSEM c33f9db1-8b3f-43ab-bddd-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Riccardo Doyle, 2020. "Using Network Interbank Contagion in Bank Default Prediction," Papers 2005.12619, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    3. Gabrieli, S. & Salakhova, D. & Vuillemey, G., 2015. "Interconnectedness and contagion risk in the European banking sector," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 05, April..
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 56, december.
    5. J. Idier & T. Piquard, 2017. "Pandemic crises in financial systems: a simulation-model to complement stress-testing frameworks," Working papers 621, Banque de France.
    6. Bai, Lan & Zhang, Xuhui & Liu, Yuntong & Wang, Qian, 2019. "Economic risk contagion among major economies: New evidence from EPU spillover analysis in time and frequency domains," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    7. Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin, 2021. "Exchange rate shocks in multicurrency interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. T. Bennani & C. Couaillier & A. Devulder & S. Gabrieli & J. Idier & P. Lopez & T. Piquard & V. Scalone, 2017. "An analytical framework to calibrate macroprudential policy," Working papers 648, Banque de France.
    9. Financial Stability Committee, Task Force on cross-border Spillover Effects of macroprudential measures & Kok, Christoffer & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2020. "Cross-border spillover effects of macroprudential policies: a conceptual framework," Occasional Paper Series 242, European Central Bank.
    10. Pawe{l} Smaga & Mateusz Wili'nski & Piotr Ochnicki & Piotr Arendarski & Tomasz Gubiec, 2016. "Can banks default overnight? Modeling endogenous contagion on O/N interbank market," Papers 1603.05142, arXiv.org.
    11. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Escolástico, Alba M., 2020. "Extension of the Fama and French model: A study of the largest European financial institutions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 115-139.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    4. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network : An epidemiological approach," Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.
    5. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network: An epidemiological approach," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.
    6. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    7. Fariba Karimi & Matthias Raddant, 2016. "Cascades in Real Interbank Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 49-66, January.
    8. Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2016. "Too interconnected to fail: A survey of the Interbank Networks literature," SAFE Working Paper Series 91, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    9. I�aki Aldasoro & Ignazio Angeloni, 2015. "Input-output-based measures of systemic importance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 589-606, April.
    10. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    11. Teteryatnikova, Mariya, 2014. "Systemic risk in banking networks: Advantages of “tiered” banking systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 186-210.
    12. Temizsoy, Asena & Iori, Giulia & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel, 2017. "Network centrality and funding rates in the e-MID interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 346-365.
    13. Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Foti, Nick & Rockmore, Daniel, 2015. "Overlapping portfolios, contagion, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 50-63.
    14. Liu, Anqi & Paddrik, Mark & Yang, Steve Y. & Zhang, Xingjia, 2020. "Interbank contagion: An agent-based model approach to endogenously formed networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    16. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Lara Mónica Machado Fernandes & Maria Rosa Borges, 2013. "Interbank Linkages and Contagion Risk in the Portuguese Banking System," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/23, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2014. "Mapping the UK interbank system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 288-303.
    19. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    20. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    21. Blasques, Francisco & Bräuning, Falk & Lelyveld, Iman van, 2018. "A dynamic network model of the unsecured interbank lending market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 310-342.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Interbank market; Stress Testing; Liquidity Hoarding; Counterparty Risk.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.