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La transición de la fecundidad en Colombia: nueva evidencia regional

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  • Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri

Abstract

Colombia experimentó uno de los descensos en fecundidad más rápidos del mundo: el número de hijos e hijas por mujer bajó de 7 en 1960 a 3 en 1985. A pesar de las marcadas desigualdades del país, el carácter regional del descenso ha sido ignorado en investigaciones anteriores. Este artículo examina la caída de la fecundidad enfocándose en los patrones regionales. La investigación utiliza los censos de población de 1973 y 1993 para ofrecer una perspectiva empírica detallada de la transición de fecundidad en el país. Se analizan patrones espaciales por medio de Indicadores Locales de Asociación Espacial (LISA, por sus siglas en inglés) para identificar clústeres geográficos y explorar la asociación entre la geografía y la fecundidad antes y durante su transición. Además, se presentan nuevas estimaciones de las tasas de fecundidad de 1958 a 1990, tanto nacionales como departamentales. Los resultados indican que, antes de la transición de fecundidad, las tendencias estaban influenciados por legados históricos derivados de diferencias en las condiciones geográficas. Sin embargo, a partir de 1964, la fecundidad empezó a descender simultáneamente en todos los departamentos, independientemente de sus tasas tradicionales de fecundidad. Aunque la convergencia regional de las tasas de fecundidad no se alcanzó para 1983, la tasa total se redujo a la mitad en la mayoría de los departamentos en tan solo 25 años. A pesar de las diferencias regionales, el descenso de la fecundidad fue rápido, y generalizado. Este descenso simultáneo sugiere que las mejoras socioeconómicas por sí solas no siempre explican los procesos demográficos. **** ABSTRAC: Colombia experienced one of the fastest declines in fertility in the world: children per woman fell from 7 in 1960 to 3 in 1985. Despite the country's significant inequalities, the regional aspect of this decline has been overlooked in previous research. This article examines the fertility decline with a focus on regional. The study uses the complete censuses of 1973 and 1993 to provide a detailed empirical perspective on the fertility transition in the country. Spatial patterns are analysed using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to identify geographic clusters and explore the association between geography and fertility patterns before and during the transition. Additionally, new estimates of fertility rates from 1958 to 1990 are presented at both national and departmental levels. The results indicate that, prior to the fertility transition, patterns were influenced by historical legacies derived from differences in geographic endowments. However, starting from 1964, fertility began to decline simultaneously in all regions, regardless of their traditional fertility levels. Although regional convergence of fertility rates was not achieved by 1983, the total rate halved in most regions in just 25 years. Despite regional differences, the fertility decline in the country was not only rapid but also widespread. This simultaneous decline suggests that socioeconomic improvements alone do not always explain demographic processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri, 2023. "La transición de la fecundidad en Colombia: nueva evidencia regional," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 60, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:cheedt:60
    DOI: 10.32468/chee.60
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transición de fecundidad; geografía; Colombia; datos censales; fertility transition; geography; census data; clustering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N96 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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