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La dinámica del desempleo urbano en Colombia

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  • Francisco Javier Lasso V.

Abstract

El desempleo varía sustancialmente en el tiempo y para diferentes grupos de trabajadores. Los flujos brutos de trabajadores entre los diferentes estados del mercado de trabajo son factores determinantes de estas variaciones. En este trabajo se investiga cómo los cambios en los flujos brutos del mercado laboral forman los movimientos cíclicos del desempleo a través del tiempo y cómo afectan a los diferentes grupos de trabajadores. Un factor determinante en la persistencia del desempleo en niveles altos es que la destrucción de empleo excedió la creación de empleo en los últimos veinticinco años. El 56% de la varianza de los cambios de la tasa de desempleo se debe al cambio en el flujo de pérdidas de empleo mientras el 41% se explica por el cambio del flujo de trabajadores que consiguen empleo. Las mayores contribuciones de las pérdidas de empleo ocurrieron durante los primeros años de los noventa y el último lustro de la década anterior. Periodos que paradójicamente coinciden con los años de mejores desempeños de la actividad agregada contrario a buena parte de la evidencia internacional donde los aumentos en las pérdidas de empleo acompañan las recesiones. Además, esta contribución del cambio de las pérdidas de empleo lideró con dos años de adelanto el cambio de pendiente de la tasa de desempleo, característica importante para considerarla como un indicador líder; mientras la contribución del cambio en el flujo de trabajadores que consiguen empleo es pro-cíclica respecto a la tasa de desempleo.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Javier Lasso V., 2011. "La dinámica del desempleo urbano en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 667, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:667
    DOI: 10.32468/be.667
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruíz, María del Pilar & Forero, David, 2023. "Estudio de mercado laboral y mapeo de iniciativas para refugiados y migrantes en Bogotá, Facatativá, Soacha, Funza y Mosquera (Cundinamarca) y Barranquilla, Soledad y Malambo (Atlántico)," Informes de Investigación 21034, Fedesarrollo.
    2. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Francisco Javier Lasso V. & Cristian Camilo Frasser L., 2015. "Calidad del empleo y bienestar: un análisis con escalas de equivalencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(77), pages 117-132, June.
    4. Ligia Alba Melo & Carlos Andrés Ballesteros, 2013. "Creación, destrucción y reasignación del empleo en el sector manufacturero colombiano," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(28), pages 281-311, January-J.
    5. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso C., 2015. "The cyclical behavior of separation and job finding rates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 910, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Daniel Medina, 2016. "Labor Fluidity and Performance of Labor Outcomes in Colombia: Evidence from Employer-Employee Linked Panel," Borradores de Economia 14249, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Francisco Lasso-Valderrama, 2020. "LA DINÁMICA DEL MERCADO LABORAL COLOMBIANO: Cuál es el rol de los flujos de trabajadores?," Borradores de Economia 1120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Hugo López Castaño & Francisco Lasso Valderrama, 2015. "Flujos de trabajadores en el mercado laboral colombiano, determinantes de las diferencias entre hombres y mujeres, y futuro laboral esperado," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 88817, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Cristian Darío Castillo Robayo & Javier García Estévez, 2019. "Desempleo juvenil en Colombia: ¿la educación importa?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 11(1), pages 101-101, February.
    10. Francisco Lasso-Valderrama & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2019. "Forecasting the Colombian Unemployment Rate Using Labour Force Flows," Borradores de Economia 1073, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. García-Suaza, A & Gómez, M & Jaramillo, F, 2021. "Fiscal policy and informality in Colombia," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 19416, Alianza EFI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desempleo; Flujos de trabajadores; Entradas y salidas del desempleo; Probabilidades de transición.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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