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Uncovering the time-varying nature of causality between oil prices and stock market returns: A multi-country study

Author

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  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Jorge Hirs-Garzon

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

We study the relation between oil prices and stock market returns for a set of six countries, including important oil consumers and demanders. We study interconnectedness between oil and stock markets and characterize the dynamics of transmission and reception between them. We test for Granger causality between markets dynamically, endogenously identifying periods for which oil prices have responded to innovations in financial markets. Our results on connectedness show that the direction of transmission is mainly from stock markets to crude petroleum prices. Additionally, connectedness increased importantly around the global financial crisis, and reports high levels until 2014. Regarding causality, we find evidence of bidirectional relations between stock market returns and crude petroleum prices. Causality is stronger during times of financial volatility as well. Our results have important implications both for investors and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon, 2017. "Uncovering the time-varying nature of causality between oil prices and stock market returns: A multi-country study," Borradores de Economia 1009, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1009
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1009
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzón, Jorge & Sanín-Restrepo, Sebastián, 2021. "Dynamic relations between oil and stock markets: Volatility spillovers, networks and causality," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 37-50.
    2. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon & Jorge M. Uribe, 2017. "Dynamic Connectedness and Causality between Oil prices and Exchange Rates," Borradores de Economia 1025, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying causality; Oil price; Stock market returns; Emerging market economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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