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How do house prices respond to mortgage supply?

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Barone

    (University of Padua)

  • Francesco David

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Guido de Blasio

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Sauro Mocetti

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We examine the impact of household mortgages on house prices. Using biannual data on Italian cities for the years 2003-2015, we build an exogenous and fully data-driven indicator of mortgage supply stances and use it as an instrument for actual extended mortgages. Our results indicate that mortgages have a positive and significant causal effect on house prices, with an estimated elasticity of around 0.1. The estimated effect is larger during the expansionary phase of the housing cycle. We also find evidence of significant spatial heterogeneity: mortgages push real estate values higher in cities where the housing supply curve is less elastic or households are more dependent on external finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Barone & Francesco David & Guido de Blasio & Sauro Mocetti, 2020. "How do house prices respond to mortgage supply?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1282, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1282_20
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2020/2020-1282/en_tema-1282.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Dottori, Davide & Micucci, Giacinto & Sigalotti, Laura, 2024. "Trade debts and bank lending in years of crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Pierluigi Bologna & Wanda Cornacchia & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Prudential policies, credit supply and house prices: evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1294, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bologna, Pierluigi & Cornacchia, Wanda & Galardo, Maddalena, 2022. "Release of a liquidity regulation: What do we learn for credit and house prices?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage supply; house prices; local housing market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R51 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Finance in Urban and Rural Economies

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