IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_528_19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

US trade policy in numbers: how exposed is the EU?

Author

Listed:
  • Rita Cappariello

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Michele Mancini

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Amid lingering uncertainty on future US trade policies towards the EU, this study provides an assessment of the implications of a change in US trade tariffs for the EU, with a focus on Italy. By examining trade flows and matching over 5.000 products to effective tariffs, the work quantifies, at the aggregate and sectoral level, actual bilateral average tariffs on trade in final goods and intermediates. Although US goods’ tariffs are generally lower than those imposed by partners, this asymmetry is not as marked for the EU. This study also evaluates the direct and indirect exposure of the EU’s and its major countries’ GDP to alternative scenarios of US tariff hikes. A change in US tariffs would affect around 2.8 per cent of total EU GDP. The EU GDP potentially affected by US tariffs only on automotive imports would be 0.4 per cent while the overall Italian exposure would be just below, 0.3 per cent, around 10 per cent in terms of the value-added produced in the motor vehicles sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Rita Cappariello & Michele Mancini, 2019. "US trade policy in numbers: how exposed is the EU?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 528, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_528_19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2019-0528/QEF_528_19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas A. Irwin, 2017. "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number irwi-2.
    2. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 73-90, Spring.
    4. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell Garcia & Wouter Simons, 2018. "The cost of non-TTIP: a global value chain approach," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 614781, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    5. Rita Cappariello & Milan Damjanovic & Michele Mancini & Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 2018. "EU-UK global value chain trade and the indirect costs of Brexit," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 468, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Alessandro Borin & Michele Mancini, 2019. "Measuring What Matters in Global Value Chains and Value-Added Trade," World Bank Publications - Reports 31533, The World Bank Group.
    7. Belotti,Federico & Borin,Alessandro & Mancini,Michele, 2020. "icio : Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output Tables in Stata," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9156, The World Bank.
    8. Douglas A. Irwin, 2017. "Introduction to "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy, pages 1-27, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alessandro Borin & Michele Mancini, 2015. "Follow the value added: bilateral gross export accounting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1026, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226398969 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Manfred Lenzen & Daniel Moran & Keiichiro Kanemoto & Arne Geschke, 2013. "Building Eora: A Global Multi-Region Input-Output Database At High Country And Sector Resolution," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 20-49, March.
    12. Wen Chen & Bart Los & Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega‐Argilés & Mark Thissen & Frank van Oort, 2018. "The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 25-54, March.
    13. Rita Cappariello, 2017. "Brexit: estimating tariff costs for EU countries in a new trade regime with the UK," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 381, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pietro Cova & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2020. "Protectionism and the effective lower bound in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1286, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Montalbano, Pierluigi & Nenci, Silvia, 2022. "Does global value chain participation and positioning in the agriculture and food sectors affect economic performance? A global assessment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Baldwin, Richard & Freeman, Rebecca & Theodorakopoulos, Angelos, 2022. "Horses for courses: measuring foreign supply chain exposure," Bank of England working papers 996, Bank of England.
    3. Belotti,Federico & Borin,Alessandro & Mancini,Michele, 2020. "icio : Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output Tables in Stata," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9156, The World Bank.
    4. Álvaro Lalanne, 2021. "Measuring value circulation in regional chains: assessing two alternative methods in South America," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0621, Department of Economics - dECON.
    5. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 93229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2022. "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2), July.
    7. Jean Baliè & Davide Del Prete & Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does bilateral trade policy impact on backward and forward participation?," Working Papers 03/2017, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Feb 2017.
    8. Inferrera, Sergio, 2021. "Globalisation in Europe: Consequences for the business environment and future patterns in light of Covid-19," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 2/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Ketan Reddy & Subash Sasidharan, 2021. "A Portrait of Global Value Chain Linkages of Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 3(2), pages 235-250, September.
    10. Pieter IJtsma & Bart Los, 2020. "UK Regions in Global Value Chains," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    11. Antonio Tena‐Junguito & Maria Isabel Restrepo‐Estrada, 2023. "Power politics and the expansion of US exports, 1879–1938," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1051-1073, November.
    12. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 92835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:hal:psewpa:halshs-04777509 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Klemen Knez & Andreja Jaklič & Metka Stare, 2021. "An extended approach to value chain analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-37, December.
    15. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2021. "International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Simona Giglioli & Giorgia Giovannetti & Enrico Marvasi & Arianna Vivoli, 2021. "The Resilience of Global Value Chains during the Covid-19 pandemic: the case of Italy," Working Papers - Economics wp2021_07.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    17. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    18. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2022. "Modeling semiconductor export restrictions and the US-China trade conflict," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    19. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates & Giammario Impullitti, 2018. "Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World," NBER Working Papers 24543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A Macro–Micro Narrative of Italian Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, March.
    21. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tariffs; protectionism; US trade policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_528_19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.