IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_242_14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation, debt and the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Neri

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of a protracted period of low and falling inflation rates when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt-deflation channel). In this scenario, even cost-push shocks that in normal circumstances would reduce inflation and stimulate output are found to have contractionary effects on economic activity, especially when the interplay of ZLB and debt deflation is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2014. "Inflation, debt and the zero lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_242_14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2014-0242/QEF_242.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    2. Stephan Fahr & Frank Smets, 2010. "Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 812-840, December.
    3. Andrés, Javier & Arce, Óscar & Thomas, Carlos, 2017. "Structural reforms in a debt overhang," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 15-34.
    4. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    5. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "Why may large economies suffer more at the zero lower bound?," KAE Working Papers 2016-012, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    2. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    3. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Mateusz Szetela, 2016. "Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 195-226.
    4. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stelios D. Bekiros, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations," Working Papers 201701, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Marco Casiraghi & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2015. "Is deflation good or bad? Just mind the inflation gap," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 268, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    7. Margarita Rubio & Fang Yao, 2020. "Macroprudential Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1565-1591, September.
    8. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1040, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1040, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission with Downward Interest Rate Rigidity," Working Papers hal-04159706, HAL.
    3. Kristina Bluwstein & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Paolo Gelain & Marcin Kolasa, 2020. "Multiperiod Loans, Occasionally Binding Constraints, and Monetary Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1691-1718, October.
    4. Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2021. "Downward interest rate rigidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Jose Emilio Bosca & Rafael Domenech & Javier Ferri & Rodolfo Mendez-Marcano & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2018. "Perturbaciones financieras y fiscales en la crisis y recuperación de la economía española [Financial and Fiscal Shocks in the Great Recession and Recovery of the Spanish Economy]," Working Papers 18/08, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "Credit spread variability in the U.S. business cycle: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-52.
    8. Mădălin Viziniuc, 2017. "Potential Gains from Cooperation Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: The Case of an Emerging Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(5), pages 420-452, September.
    9. Yépez, Carlos A., 2018. "Financial intermediation and real estate prices impact on business cycles: A Bayesian analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 138-160.
    10. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Arruda Gustavo & Lima Daniela & Teles Vladimir Kühl, 2020. "Household borrowing constraints and monetary policy in emerging economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Vo Le & Kent Matthews & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhiguo Xiao, 2014. "Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 123-161, February.
    13. Boscá, J.E. & Doménech, R. & Ferri, J. & Méndez, R. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F., 2020. "Financial and fiscal shocks in the great recession and recovery of the Spanish economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_030 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Javier Andres & Oscar Arce & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado, 2022. "Deciphering the Macroeconomic Effects of Internal Devaluations in a Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-47, December.
    17. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1436-1466, June.
    18. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2018. "An integrated financial amplifier: the role of defaulted loans and occasionally binding constraints in output fluctuations," Working Papers w201813, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bozou, Caroline, 2024. "Desirable banking competition and stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Kühl, Michael, 2017. "Bank capital, the state contingency of banks’ assets and its role for the transmission of shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 260-284.
    21. Martino, Ricci & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2017. "Subprime Mortgages and Banking in a DSGE Model," Working Papers 366, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 22 Jun 2017.
    22. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Palestrini, Antonio, 2019. "DSGE model with financial frictions over subsets of business cycle frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 152-163.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    zero lower bound; monetary policy; disinflation; debt-deflation channel.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_242_14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.