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Trade bloc enlargement when many countries join at once

Author

Listed:
  • Rodolfo G. Campos

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

  • Jacopo Timini

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of trade bloc enlargement, focusing on simultaneous country entries. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we identify three driving forces behind changes in trade flows and welfare gains: i) reduced bilateral trade costs between candidates and current members, ii) candidates adopting the bloc’s trade policy towards outsiders, and iii) reduced trade costs among candidates. Our findings highlight the substantial impact of the third force, which may account for at least a third of the welfare gains for candidates, sometimes exceeding the other two forces combined.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo G. Campos & Jacopo Timini, 2025. "Trade bloc enlargement when many countries join at once," Working Papers 2515, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2515
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/39258
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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/25/Files/dt2515e.pdf
    File Function: First version, March 2025
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade agreement; EU enlargement; international trade; new quantitative trade model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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