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The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Bardoscia

    (BANK OF ENGLAND)

  • Adrian Carro

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD)

  • Marc Hinterschweiger

    (BANK OF ENGLAND)

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (SCUOLA SUPERIORE SANT’ANNA, UNIVERSITÉ CÔTE D’AZUR AND SCIENCES PO, OFCE)

  • Lilit Popoyan

    (UNIVERSITY OF LONDON AND SCUOLA SUPERIORE SANT’ANNA)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (SCUOLA SUPERIORE SANT’ANNA AND SCIENCES PO, OFCE)

  • Arzu Uluc

    (BANK OF ENGLAND)

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study the joint impact of borrower and lender-based prudential policies on the housing and credit markets and the economy more widely. We perform three experiments: (i) an increase of total capital requirements; (ii) the introduction of a loan-to-income (LTI) cap on mortgages to owner-occupiers; and (iii) the introduction of both experiments at the same time. Our results suggest that tightening capital requirements leads to a sharp decrease in commercial and mortgage lending and housing transactions. When the LTI cap is in place, house prices fall sharply relative to income and the homeownership rate decreases. When both policy instruments are combined, we find that housing transactions and prices drop. Both policies have a positive impact on real GDP and unemployment, while having no material impact on inflation and the real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bardoscia & Adrian Carro & Marc Hinterschweiger & Mauro Napoletano & Lilit Popoyan & Andrea Roventini & Arzu Uluc, 2024. "The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model," Working Papers 2502, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2502
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/38913
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    Keywords

    prudential policies; housing market; macroeconomy; agent-based models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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