IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/2441.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A macroeconomic model of banks’ systemic risk taking

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Abad

    (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)

  • David Martínez-Miera

    (UC3M AND CEPR)

  • Javier Suárez

    (CEMFI AND CEPR)

Abstract

We study banks’ systemic risk-taking decisions in a dynamic general equilibrium model, highlighting the macroprudential role of bank capital requirements. Banks decide on their unobservable exposure to systemic shocks by balancing risk-shifting gains against the value of preserving their capital after such shocks. Capital requirements reduce systemic risk taking, but at the cost of reducing credit and output in calm times, generating welfare trade-offs. We find that systemic risk taking is maximal after long periods of calm and may worsen if capital requirements are countercyclically adjusted. Removing deposit insurance introduces market discipline but increases the bank capital necessary to support credit, implies lower (though far from zero) optimal capital requirements and has nuanced social welfare effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Abad & David Martínez-Miera & Javier Suárez, 2024. "A macroeconomic model of banks’ systemic risk taking," Working Papers 2441, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2441
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/37914
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/24/Files/dt2441e.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2024
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.53479/37914?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2017. "Bank Leverage Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 32-72, April.
    2. Repullo, Rafael, 2004. "Capital requirements, market power, and risk-taking in banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 156-182, April.
    3. Frederic Malherbe, 2020. "Optimal Capital Requirements over the Business and Financial Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 139-174, July.
    4. Gersbach, Hans & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2017. "Capital regulation and credit fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 113-124.
    5. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kogler, Michael, 2020. "Risk shifting and the allocation of capital: A Rationale for macroprudential regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Robin Dottling, 2018. "Bank Capital Regulation in a Zero Interest Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-016/IV, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Oct 2019.
    3. Döttling, Robin, 2023. "Bank Capital Regulation in a Zero Interest Environment," OSF Preprints 9dxzf, Center for Open Science.
    4. Lubello, Federico & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2019. "Bank assets, liquidity and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 265-282.
    5. Coimbra, Nuno, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Hans Gersbach & Jean-Charles Rochet & Martin Scheffel, 2023. "Financial Intermediation, Capital Accumulation, and Crisis Recovery," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1423-1469.
    7. Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2022. "Welfare implications of bank capital requirements under dynamic default decisions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Chen, David Xiao & Friedrich, Christian, 2023. "The countercyclical capital buffer and international bank lending: Evidence from Canada," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Guo, Wen-Chung & Tseng, Ping-Lun, 2023. "COVID-19, bank risk, and capital regulation: The aggregate shock and social distancing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 155-173.
    10. Gersbach, Hans & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2017. "Capital regulation and credit fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 113-124.
    11. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Behzad T. Diba & Luca Guerrieri & Arsenii Mishin, 2020. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements and Implementable Capital Buffer Rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2021. "Capital requirements, risk-taking and welfare in a growing economy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 167-192, December.
    13. Nuno Coimbra & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 817-857.
    14. Emanuel Barnea & Moshe Kim, 2014. "Dynamics of Banks' Capital Accumulation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 779-816, June.
    15. Maarten R.C. Van Oordt, 2023. "Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market‐Based Stress Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 465-501, March.
    16. Paul Luk & Tianxiao Zheng, 2022. "Dynamics of Secured and Unsecured Debt Over the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 284-314, April.
    17. Luck, Stephan & Schempp, Paul, 2023. "Inefficient liquidity creation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Paul Konietschke & Steven Ongena & Aurea Ponte Marques, 2022. "Stress tests and capital requirement disclosures: do they impact banks' lending and risk-taking decisions?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-60, Swiss Finance Institute.
    19. Roger Aliaga‐Díaz & María Pía Olivero & Andrew Powell, 2018. "Monetary Policy And Anti‐Cyclical Bank Capital Regulation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 837-858, April.
    20. Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2015. "Balance sheets of financial intermediaries: Do they forecast economic activity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 263-275.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital requirements; risk shifting; deposit insurance; systemic risk; financial crises; macroprudential policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.