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Meeting our D€STINY. A Disaggregated €uro area Short Term INdicator model to forecast GDP (Y) growth

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Burriel

    (Banco de España)

  • María Isabel García-Belmonte

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge the existing gap in the literature between large- and small-scale dynamic factor models. By adopting a disaggregated modelling approach, D€STINY uses most of the information available for the euro area and the member countries (around 100 economic indicators), but without incurring in the nite sample problems of the large-scale methods, since all the estimated models are of a small scale. An empirical pseudo-real time application for the period 2004-2013 shows that D€STINY´s forecasting performance is clearly better than the standard alternative models and than the publicly available forecasts of other institutions. This is especially true for the period since the beginning of the crisis, which suggests that our approach may be more robust to periods of highly volatile data and to the possible presence of structural breaks in the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Burriel & María Isabel García-Belmonte, 2013. "Meeting our D€STINY. A Disaggregated €uro area Short Term INdicator model to forecast GDP (Y) growth," Working Papers 1323, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1323
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/13/Fich/dt1323e.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; output growth; time series; Euro-STING model; large-scale model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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