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The relationship between pandemic containment measures, mobility and economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Corinna Ghirelli

    (Banco de España)

  • María Gil

    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    (Banco de España)

  • Alberto Urtasun

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper first constructs a regional-scale indicator that seeks to gauge the volume of measures implemented at each point in time to contain the pandemic. Using textual analysis techniques, we analyse the information in press news. At the start of the pandemic, measures were taken in a centralised fashion; but from June, regional differences began to be seen and increased in the final stretch of the year. Second, using linear estimates, with monthly data and a level of regional disaggregation, the paper documents how most of the reduction in mobility observed in Spain has been due to the restrictions imposed. However, there has been a perceptible change in this relationship over recent months. In the early stages of the pandemic, the reduction in mobility was found to be greater than would be inferred by the restrictions approved. That is to say, at the outset there was apparently some voluntary reduction in mobility. Yet following lockdown-easing, the behaviour of mobility has fitted more closely with what might be attributed to the containment measures in force. Finally, the findings in the paper suggest that most of the decline in economic activity since the start of the crisis can be explained by the reductions observed in mobility. The analysis considers only the short-term effects on activity, which is very useful for preparing the projections on GDP behaviour in the current quarter. Conversely, the methodological approach pursued does not allow for evaluation of the effect of the pandemic containment measures on activity over longer time horizons. In particular, the adverse impact on the economy’s output that occurs concurrently as a result of the restrictions may be countered in the medium term by an effect of the opposite sign, to the extent that the restrictions imposed today may serve to prevent other more forceful ones in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Samuel Hurtado & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "The relationship between pandemic containment measures, mobility and economic activity," Occasional Papers 2109, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:2109e
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/21/Fich/do2109.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Concha Artola & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun & Alejandro Fiorito & Diego Vila, 2018. "Monitoring the Spanish economy from a regional perspective: main elements of analysis," Occasional Papers 1809, Banco de España.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ángel Luis Gómez & Ana del Río, 2021. "The uneven impact of the health crisis on the euro area economies in 2020," Occasional Papers 2115, Banco de España.
    2. Pablo Aguilar, 2021. "Consumption recovery in 2021: an analysis drawing on consumer expectations," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 3/2021.
    3. Ángel Luis Gómez & Ana del Río, 2021. "El impacto desigual de la crisis sanitaria sobre las economías del área del euro en 2020," Occasional Papers 2115, Banco de España.
    4. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Cuadros-Solas, Pedro J. & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco & Sánchez-Béjar, José Juan, 2023. "Mobility restrictions and payment choices: The case of the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nowcasting; GDP; economic activity; textual analysis; sentiment indicators; soft indicators; pandemic; COVID-19; coronavirus; mobility; restrictions; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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