La efectividad de los programas del FMI en la última década

In IMF lending to countries in balance of payments difficulties, access to Fund resources is conditional to complying with series of measures and reforms contained in an economic program. The IMF periodically revises the design and conditionality of economic programs. One of the key findings of the latest Review of Conditionality concluded in 2019, comprising programs between 2011 and 2017, is a proposal to measure the effectiveness of IMF programs in terms of their objective of correcting borrowing countries imbalances. This exercise shows modest results. In addition, the review has revealed the excessive optimism of macroeconomic projections used in programs, together with an overestimation of the positive effects of structural reforms. These factors may jeopardize the effectiveness of economic programs. There remain open questions when revising the design and conditionality of IMF programs. Among them, the links between conditionality and stigma, the social impact and communication strategy of adjustment policies so that they can be more socially acceptable, the duration of IMF programs, the role of debt restructurings, and the adequacy of policy recommendations, beyond the strict compliance with conditionality procedures.