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External Prices Shocks and the Real Exchange Rate. The Dutch Disease in the Argentine Case

Author

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  • Luis Lanteri

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of external price shocks on the real exchange rate and the existence of the Dutch disease, in the case of the Argentine economy. We consider the effects of shocks on the terms of trade, the supply of the agricultural sector (booming sector) and the real exchange rate on the GDP of the manufacturing sector (or, alternatively, on total GDP) and unemployment rates. SVAR models, with long-term restrictions, and quarterly data, covering the 1993-2018 period, are estimated. The results show that the external price shocks and agricultural sector shocks affect positively and permanently to the manufacturing GDP and negatively to the unemployment rates, not finding substantial evidence about existence of the Dutch disease for this economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Lanteri, 2019. "External Prices Shocks and the Real Exchange Rate. The Dutch Disease in the Argentine Case," BCRA Working Paper Series 201984, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201984
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    external price shocks; real exchange rate; Dutch disease; SVAR models; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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