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Balance of Payments Current Account Shocks. Some Evidence for Argentina

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  • Luis Lanteri

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the different shocks that could affect the current account in the argentine case, such as the terms of trade (the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect-HLM), supply shocks (productivity), demand shocks (real exchange rate and public consumption /current GDP) and the shocks on the production side of the economy. SVAR models with long-term restrictions and quarterly data covering the period 1994-2018 are used. The results of the impulse-response functions suggest the existence of the HLM effect for this country. Shocks in the terms of trade would initially affect to the current account positively, as the improvements in the productivity and in the public saving (lower consumption).

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Lanteri, 2018. "Balance of Payments Current Account Shocks. Some Evidence for Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 201883, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201883
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; terms of trade; Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect; productivity; public consumption; SVAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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