Impactos do Direcionamento de Crédito Sobre a Economia Brasileira: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral

In Brazil, about 40% of the credit to firms originates from earmarking credit policies. These loans are heavily subsidized, with interest rates substantially lower than the others. Only about 18% of formal firms are benefited by these loans. However, these firms receive about 80% of total corporate credit from banks. It is reasonable to assume that the effects of these policies on the economy are substantial. To evaluate them, we elaborate a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and credit restrictions that incorporates the credit earmarking policies practiced in Brazil. Using theoretical and numerical resources recently incorporated into the economic literature, we adjusted the model to the Brazilian data in order to simulate the effects of the removal of credit earmarking policies. Our simulations indicate that the extinction of earmarked credit programs would generate several positive effects, such as increased output and productivity, reduced inequality and financial inclusion. Next, we simulate variations in earmarking policies, evaluating the impacts of giving greater focus to poorer or more productive entrepreneurs. While these changes can lead to improvements, our simulations indicate smaller gains than the mere removal of earmarking programs.