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Análise Técnica da Taxa de Câmbio Real/Dólar e Intervenções Oficiais no Mercado de Câmbio do Brasil

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  • Márcia S. Leon

Abstract

The paper applies the methodology of LeBaron (1999) and reproduces the study of Borges and Rossi (2010) to estimate the profitability of trading strategies, in the Brazilian foreign exchange market, based on technical analysis with moving-average. The study uses of a database of official interventions that is more updated and different from that of Borges and Rossi (2010). The results confirm the ones obtained in the previous two studies: the average daily returns of the trading strategies are significantly non-zero when the days with official intervention stay in the sample and are statistically insignificant when they are removed.

Suggested Citation

  • Márcia S. Leon, 2018. "Análise Técnica da Taxa de Câmbio Real/Dólar e Intervenções Oficiais no Mercado de Câmbio do Brasil," Working Papers Series 489, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:489
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