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Optimal Monetary Policy, Gains from Commitment, and Inflation Persistence

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  • André Minella

Abstract

Using a New Keynesian framework, this paper compares the effects on the welfare of optimal monetary policies under commitment and discretion, and examines the consequences of the presence of inflation persistence. A policy under commitment generates a better-weighted average of the variances of output and inflation ("dynamic gains"), and eliminates the inflationary bias. Commitment usually delivers a lower variance of inflation and a higher variance of output than those under discretion. The effect of the presence of inflation persistence on the dynamic gains from commitment is somehow surprising: the benefits are increasing in the degree of inflation persistence for moderate levels of persistence. On the other hand, inflation persistence reduces the inflationary bias. Furthermore, under "restricted commitment", were the solution is restricted to be within the same family of rules of the discretionary case, the gains are substantially inferior to those from commitment.

Suggested Citation

  • André Minella, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Gains from Commitment, and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 45, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:45
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    Cited by:

    1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff & Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer & Márcio I. Nakane, 2002. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Spread in Brazil," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 183-207, July-Dece.
    3. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008. "Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
    4. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2001. "Estimando o Produto Potencial Brasileiro: Uma Abordagem de Função de Produção," Working Papers Series 17, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2001. "Uma Definição Operacional de Estabilidade de Preços," Working Papers Series 35, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Eui Jung Chang & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2002. "Macroeconomic Coordination and Inflation Targeting in a Two-Country Model," Working Papers Series 50, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Victorio Yi Tson Chu, 2002. "Credit Channel with Sovereign Credit Risk: an Empirical Test," Working Papers Series 51, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    10. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2004. "Bank Competition, Agency Costs and the Performance of the Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 81, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    13. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Mauricio S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on ‘Market discipline and monetary policy’ by Carl Walsh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 732-739, October.
    15. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    16. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Benjamin Miranda Tabak. Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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