Expectativa de Vida no Mercado de Trabalho Brasileiro

Although fertility rates at very low levels negatively affect the number of people in the labor force, the average lifetime of each person in the labor market may increase with the fall of mortality rates, ceteris paribus. Therefore, during demographic transition, the size of labor force would decrease, but the average lifetime of each person in the labor market would increase. In this research, working life expectancies are estimated with 2000 and 2010 Census data by the Sullivan method to analyze the level and structure of working life expectancies in Brazil. Life expectations do not have influence of age composition, which allows comparison of the measures in time and space without that bias. The results show that, on average, working life expectancy at 15 years old increased from 32.5 years in 2000 to 34.5 years in 2010. Therefore, although the size of labor force has been negatively affected by fertility decline, people had higher expectations to remain in the labor market during the remaining life. Between 2000 and 2010, the observed increase of the working life expectancy was 50% due to the decline in mortality rates and 50% due to changes in activity rates. Between sexes, while male expectation was most affected by mortality, female expectation was most affected by activity rates.