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La production potentielle au Canada : évaluation de 2024

Author

Listed:
  • Tessa Devakos
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Stephanie Houle
  • Craig Johnston
  • Antoine Poulin-Moore
  • Ron Rautu
  • Temel Taskin

Abstract

Nous prévoyons que la croissance de la production potentielle au Canada sera de 2,3 % en 2023 et de 2,5 % en 2024, et qu’elle s’établira en moyenne juste en dessous de 1,7 % d’ici 2027, compte tenu du ralentissement de la croissance démographique. Par rapport à l’évaluation d’avril 2023, nous avons revu à la hausse la croissance en 2024, étant donné la contribution accrue du facteur travail tendanciel sous l’effet de la croissance démographique plus forte que prévu. D’un autre côté, nous avons revu à la baisse nos estimations de la croissance de la production potentielle pour 2025-2026.

Suggested Citation

  • Tessa Devakos & Christopher Hajzler & Stephanie Houle & Craig Johnston & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Ron Rautu & Temel Taskin, 2024. "La production potentielle au Canada : évaluation de 2024," Staff Analytical Notes 2024-11fr, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:24-11fr
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    File URL: https://www.banqueducanada.ca/2024/04/note-analytique-personnel-2024-11/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marchés du travail; Modèles économiques; Politique monétaire; Production potentielle; Productivité;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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