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Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Tessa Devakos
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Stephanie Houle
  • Craig Johnston
  • Antoine Poulin-Moore
  • Ron Rautu
  • Temel Taskin

Abstract

We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.

Suggested Citation

  • Tessa Devakos & Christopher Hajzler & Stephanie Houle & Craig Johnston & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Ron Rautu & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2024-11, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:24-11
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    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/staff-analytical-note-2024-11/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Labour markets; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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