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Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada

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  • Martin Kuncl

Abstract

During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM). Both a descriptive analysis of the raw data and an event-study analysis based on the output from the VECM suggest that while the tightening of the mortgage rules contributed to slower growth of both credit and residential investment, the effects were not always immediate. In some episodes, a tightening was followed by a temporary increase in residential mortgage credit growth (a finding that persists even after controlling for other events in the economy), possibly in anticipation of additional tightenings. In the long run, however, the residential mortgage growth rate was reduced. The consequences of rule changes were more persistent for residential mortgage growth than for the more volatile residential investment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Kuncl, 2016. "Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 16-12, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:16-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kartashova, Katya & Tomlin, Ben, 2017. "House prices, consumption and the role of non-Mortgage debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 121-134.
    2. Jeannine Bailliu & Katya Kartashova & Césaire Meh, 2011. "Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Winter), pages 16-29.
    3. Mr. Ivo Krznar & Mr. James Morsink, 2014. "With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility: Macroprudential Tools at Work in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2014/083, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    5. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    6. H. Evren Damar & Miguel Molico, 2016. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Effectiveness of Macroprudential Tools in Building Resilience and Mitigating Financial Imbalances," Discussion Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    7. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    8. Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
    9. Allan Crawford & Umar Faruqui, 2011. "What Explains Trends in Household Debt in Canada?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Winter), pages 3-15.
    10. Lawrence L. Schembri, 2014. "Housing Finance in Canada: Looking Back to Move Forward," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 230(1), pages 45-57, November.
    11. Shekhar Aiyar & Charles W. Calomiris & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Does Macro‐Prudential Regulation Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 181-214, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Péter Fáykiss, Márton Nagy and Anikó Szombati, 2017. "Regionally-differentiated debt cap rules: a Hungarian perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 153-178, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. H. Evren Damar & Miguel Molico, 2016. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Effectiveness of Macroprudential Tools in Building Resilience and Mitigating Financial Imbalances," Discussion Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    3. Scott A. Brave & Jose A. Lopez & Jeremy Kronick, 2020. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policies for the Canadian Mortgage Market," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 570, April.
    4. Péter Fáykiss & Alexandr Palicz & János Szakács & Márton Zsigó, 2018. "Experiences of Debt Cap Regulations in Hungarian Retail Lending," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(1), pages 34-61.
    5. Jeremy Kronick, 2017. "Spendthrifts and Savers: Are Canadians Acting Like they are “House Poor” or “House Rich”?," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 482, June.
    6. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
    7. Mr. Adrian Alter & Elizabeth M. Mahoney, 2020. "Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/042, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit and credit aggregates; Financial system regulation and policies; Housing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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