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Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate

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  • Bo Young Chang
  • Greg Orosi

Abstract

There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. We introduce a simple method to detect stocks with positive expected equity recovery by examining option prices and propose a method to extract the default probability from option prices that allows for positive equity recovery. We demonstrate possible applications of our methodology with examples that include large financial institutions in the United States during the 2007–09 subprime crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Young Chang & Greg Orosi, 2016. "Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate," Staff Working Papers 16-58, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    2. Andrea De Martino & Edward Manuel Ruiz Crosby & Roberto Stagni, 2017. "A unified framework for pricing credit and equity derivatives," Working Papers 116, Peruvian Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Financial markets; Market structure and pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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