Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2000.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
- Gneiting, Tilmann & Ranjan, Roopesh, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Scoring the leading indicators," Special Studies Papers 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Jan Willem Slingenberg & Jakob de Haan, 2011. "Forecasting Financial Stress," DNB Working Papers 292, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Christensen, Ian & Li, Fuchun, 2014.
"Predicting financial stress events: A signal extraction approach,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 54-65.
- Ian Christensen & Fuchun Li, 2014. "Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach," Staff Working Papers 14-37, Bank of Canada.
- Mark Carlson & Kurt Lewis & William Nelson, 2014.
"Using Policy Intervention To Identify Financial Stress,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 59-72, January.
- Mark A. Carlson & Kurt F. Lewis & William R. Nelson, 2012. "Using policy intervention to identify financial stress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fuchun Li & Pierre St-Amant, 2010.
"Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity,"
Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Autumn), pages 9-18.
- Fuchun Li & Pierre St-Amant, 2010. "Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity," Staff Working Papers 10-12, Bank of Canada.
- Tilmann Gneiting & Roopesh Ranjan, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422, July.
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
- Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2009. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 95-122, December.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Marina Yu. Malkina & Rodion V. Balakin, 2023. "The Relation of Financial and Industrial Stresses to Monetary Policy Parameters in the Russian Economy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 104-121, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Tihana Skrinjaric, 2023. "Leading indicators of financial stress in Croatia: a regime switching approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 205-232.
- Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
- Christensen, Ian & Li, Fuchun, 2014.
"Predicting financial stress events: A signal extraction approach,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 54-65.
- Ian Christensen & Fuchun Li, 2014. "Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach," Staff Working Papers 14-37, Bank of Canada.
- Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013.
"SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.
- Timothy Bianco & Ryan Eiben & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong & Jing Wang, 2011. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Working Papers (Old Series) 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the international transmission of US financial stress. A threshold-VAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-81.
- Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015.
"The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions,"
Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
- Timothy Bianco & Ryan Eiben & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2011. "The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1130, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017.
"Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
- Borek Vašícek & Diana Žigraiová & Marco Hoeberichts & Robert Vermeulen & Katerina Šmídková & Jakob de Haan, 2015. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," DNB Working Papers 476, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
- Truong, Chi & Sheen, Jeffrey & Trück, Stefan & Villafuerte, James, 2022. "Early warning systems using dynamic factor models: An application to Asian economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020.
"Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyun Hak Kim & Wen Shi, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Working Papers 2015-30, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen & Kim, Hyun Hak, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2016. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-10, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2019. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Zigraiova, Diana & Jakubik, Petr, 2015. "Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 553-576.
- George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
- Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011.
"Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Lo Duca, Marco, 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," Working Paper Series 1311, European Central Bank.
- Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
- Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013.
"Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
- Roman Horvath & Jaromir Baxa & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "How Does Monetary Policy Respond to Financial Stress?," EcoMod2011 2769, EcoMod.
- Jaromir Baxa & Roman Horvath & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Time-Varying Monetary-Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2011/03, Czech National Bank.
- Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary," Working Papers wpdea1101, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2021.
"Forecasting financial vulnerability in the USA: A factor model approach,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 439-457, April.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2016. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-15, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2020. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Systemic Event Prediction by Early Warning System," Working Papers IES 2014/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2014.
- Smaranda CIMPOERU, 2015. "THE CHALLENGE OF MEASURING FINANCIAL STRESS. CASE STUDY FOR IDENTIFYING THE MACROECONOMIC TRIGGERS OF FINANCIAL CRISIS WITH PANEL DATA MODELS Abstract : Measuring financial stress is a key research is," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 4(Special I), pages 1-31, august.
More about this item
Keywords
Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability;JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-FOR-2016-04-30 (Forecasting)
- NEP-RMG-2016-04-30 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.