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Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada

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  • Jason Allen
  • Ali Hortaçsu
  • Jakub Kastl

Abstract

This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We use data from the Canadian financial system to show that these publicly available risk measures, while indicative of initial problems of the financial system as a whole, do not seem to correspond to risks implied by the cross-sectional heterogeneity in bank behavior in short-term lending markets. Strategies in, and reliance on the payments system as well as special liquidity-supplying tools provided by the central bank seem to be more important additional indicators of distress of individual banks, or lack thereof than the CDSs. It therefore seems that central banks should utilize high-frequency data on liquidity demand to obtain a better picture of financial health of individual participants of the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Allen & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2011. "Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 11-17, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Cely & Carlos León, 2015. "Monitoring the Unsecured Interbank Funds Market," Borradores de Economia 14080, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Olivier Armantier & Adam Copeland, 2012. "Assessing the quality of “Furfine-based” algorithms," Staff Reports 575, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Sabetti, Leonard & Heijmans, Ronald, 2021. "Shallow or deep? Training an autoencoder to detect anomalous flows in a retail payment system," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    4. Mark Rempel, 2016. "Improving Overnight Loan Identification in Payments Systems," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 549-564, March.
    5. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002-2012 period," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1160-1195, November.
    6. Xavier Vives, 2014. "On The Possibility Of Informationally Efficient Markets," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1200-1239, October.
    7. Fuchun Li & Héctor Pérez Saiz, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures," Staff Working Papers 16-10, Bank of Canada.
    8. Héctor Pérez Saiz & Gabriel Xerri, 2016. "Credit Risk and Collateral Demand in a Retail Payment System," Discussion Papers 16-16, Bank of Canada.
    9. Jason Allen & James Chapman & Federico Echenique & Matthew Shum, 2016. "Efficiency And Bargaining Power In The Interbank Loan Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 691-716, May.
    10. Li, Fuchun & Perez-Saiz, Hector, 2018. "Measuring systemic risk across financial market infrastructures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Anna Kovner & David R. Skeie, 2013. "Evaluating the quality of fed funds lending estimates produced from Fedwire payments data," Staff Reports 629, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Céline Gauthier & Moez Souissi & Xuezhi Liu, 2014. "Introducing Funding Liquidity Risk in a Macro Stress-Testing Framework," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 105-142, December.
    13. Sarmiento, Miguel & Cely, Jorge & León, Carlos, 2017. "An early warning indicator system to monitor the unsecured interbank funds market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 114-128.
    14. Nguyen, My & Perera, Shrimal & Skully, Michael, 2017. "Bank market power, asset liquidity and funding liquidity: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 23-38.
    15. Coen, Patrick & Coen, Jamie, 2019. "A structural model of interbank network formation and contagion," Bank of England working papers 833, Bank of England.
    16. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Presidential Address: Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002–2012 period," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1160-1195, November.
    17. James Chapman & H. Evren Damar, 2015. "Shock Transmission Through International Banks: Canada," Technical Reports 105, Bank of Canada.
    18. Olivier Armantier & Adam Copeland, 2015. "Challenges in identifying interbank loans," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 21-1, pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Institutions; Financial markets; Payment clearing and settlement systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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