IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocatr/122.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Bruneau
  • Thibaut Duprey
  • Ruben Hipp

Abstract

We develop a corporate default model to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress. First, we tackle a data gap by reconstructing historical default probabilities for banks’ loan portfolios. Second, we estimate tail elasticities to capture non-linear relationships between macrofinancial conditions and default probabilities. By explicitly modelling default probabilities associated with macroeconomic tail events, this model significantly improves the Bank of Canada’s stress-testing infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Bruneau & Thibaut Duprey & Ruben Hipp, 2022. "Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model," Technical Reports 122, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/10/technical-report-122/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/tr122.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Derviş Kirikkaleli & Fatih Ayhan, 2023. "Nexus between non‐performing loans and economic growth in emerging countries: Evidence from Turkey with wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1250-1260, April.
    2. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2021. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 160, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    3. Miyajima Ken, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, August.
    4. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    5. Svetozar Tanasković & Maja Jandrić, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(1), pages 47-62.
    6. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    7. Magda Kandil & Minko Markovski, 2019. "UAE Banks’ Performance and the Oil Price Shock: Indicators for Conventional and Islamic Banks," Working Papers 1284, Economic Research Forum, revised 2019.
    8. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    9. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    10. Vasiliki Makri & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Athanasios Bellas, 2014. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 193-206, March.
    11. Kemal Kozarić & Emina Žunić Dželihodžić, 2020. "Effects of Macroeconomic Environment on Non-Performing Loans and Financial Stability: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 5-17.
    12. Vyshnevskyi, Iegor & Sohn, Wook, 2023. "Nonperforming loans and related lending: Evidence from Ukraine," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Alwyn Jordan & Carisma Tucker, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of Nonperforming Loans on Economic Growth in The Bahamas," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 371-400, July-Dece.
    14. Vasilis Siakoulis, 2017. "Fiscal policy effects on non-performing loan formation," Working Papers 224, Bank of Greece.
    15. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:656:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ivan Huljak & Reiner Martin & Diego Moccero & Cosimo Pancaro, 2022. "Do non-performing loans matter for bank lending and the business cycle in euro area countries?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1050-1080, December.
    17. Ijaz Hussain, 2017. "Corporate Financial Leverage, Asset Utilization and Nonperforming Loans in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 37-70, Jan-June.
    18. Josué Fernando Cortés Espada, 2013. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 287-316, July-Dece.
    19. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
    20. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    21. Alberto Ortiz Bolaños, 2013. "Credit Market Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Fluctuations," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 317-369, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Financial institutions; Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.