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Bank lending effect on German commercial property prices

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  • Gruber, Johannes
  • Lee, Gabriel

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of bank lending on German commercial property prices. The theory on the role of financial intermediaries in business cycle activity states that lending activity is characterized by asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders. As a consequence, interest rates may not move to clear lending markets (as in models with moral hazard and adverse selection elements) or firms' net worth may play a critical role as collateral in influencing lending activity (as in models with agency costs). While the theory is concrete, the debate on the empirical support for these models continues. In this paper, our goal is to continue in exploring this debate by estimating a recursive VAR model using German (both aggregate and regional level) commercial property data from 1975 to 2004. Unlike other previous empirical results in commercial real estate literature, our main results show a weak negative correlation between growth in property prices and growth in credit, especially at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Gruber, Johannes & Lee, Gabriel, 2008. "Bank lending effect on German commercial property prices," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 428, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:9397
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    2. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese, 2013. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 469-490, December.
    2. Bienert, Sven & Sebastian, Steffen P. & Just, Tobias, . "Niedrigzinsumfeld und die Auswirkungen auf die Immobilienwirtschaft," Beiträge zur Immobilienwirtschaft, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics, number 8, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kreditgewährung ; Gewerbeimmobilien ; Vektor-autoregressives Modell;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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