Infrastructure Investment and Finance in the Global South: The Public-Private Paradox

While the public sector is traditionally the sole provider for much of infrastructure, the pendulum is shifting in light of the enormous investment gap. Across the Global South, public utilities and planning agencies are engaging with the private sector to help bridge the gap. What are the key sources of infrastructure investment across countries in the Global South? Specifically, what is the magnitude of public sector financing in the context of rising private participation? What macro factors underscore the volume of investment from either sector? These are the research questions motivating this research, which focuses on the five infrastructure sectors in the Global South and its various regions. Following a historical synthesis of the changing balance of public and private provision, the paper first outlines recent patterns of private participation in infrastructure. A unique dataset on infrastructure investment in the transport sector draws from the World Bank PPI database and the International Transport Forum data. Using this dataset, a regression analysis includes key macro-level predictors for private sector financing and overall investment, to untangle the public-private paradox. Key results point to the importance of effective governance and controlling external debt.